摘要
近三十年来,我国GDP增长迅速,其中对外贸易的蓬勃发展作出了重要贡献。为探索对外贸易与GDP增长之间的关系,根据1978—2007年我国经济发展数据,综合运用单位根检验、协整检验、格兰杰因果检验、方差分解等方法进行计量分析,发现出口贸易对我国GDP增长影响显著,进口贸易则间接对我国GDP增长作出了贡献。
In the recent 30 years, the GDP has grown dramatically in China, in which international trade plays a key role. In order to explore the relationship between international trade and GDP growth, the unit root test, co-integration test, Granger causality test and variance decomposition are utilized to accomplish quantitative analysis according to the economic developing data in China from 1978 to 2007. It is found that export trade has a significant influence on GDP growth in China, while import trade contributes to GDP growth in China indirectly.
出处
《沈阳工业大学学报（社会科学版）》
2010年第1期35-40,共6页
Journal of Shenyang University of Technology(Social Sciences)
基金
辽宁省教育厅科研计划项目(2009A648)
关键词
经济增长
国内生产总值
对外贸易
进口贸易
出口贸易
单位根检验
协整检验
格兰杰因果检验
方差分解
economic growth
Gross Domestic Product （GDP）
international trade
import trade
exporttrade
unit root test
co-integration test
Granger causality test
variance decomposition
