区域工业产业发展系统动力学建模研究——以广州市为例

Systemic Dynamics modeling research on regional industrial development——A case in Guangzhou City

运用系统动力学(SD)相关理论对区域工业产业发展系统的有效运行进行建模,探索一种从定性与定量相结合的角度反映区域工业产业发展系统运行机制的方法,观测其行为特性,找到起主要作用的反馈回路和政策的杠杆作用点,为政府制定工业产业发展政策提供依据。以广州市为例,结合国际和国内区域工业产业发展的相关理论,将广州市工业产业发展系统划分为工业生产、区域技术创新环境、区域经济环境3个子系统,通过对区域产业发展系统进行严谨的系统因果反馈分析,从微观结构入手考察区域产业发展的影响因素与制约条件,寻找其根源,并在此基础上提出相应政策建议。

By applying the relevant theories of Systemic Dynamics （SD）, a model is established for the effective operating of regional industrial development. A method reflecting systematic operating mechanisms is explored from the perspective of the combination of qualitative and quantitative methods. The behavioral characteristics of the model are observed, and the key feedback loop and policy fulcrum are tried to find out in order to provide bases for industrial development policy-making. Guangzhou City is taken as a case. The industrial development system of Guangzhou is compartmentalized into three subsystems, namely, the industrial manufacturing, the regional technological innovation environment and the regional economical environment system according to the relevant theories of regional industrial development both home and abroad. Through the precise systematical consequence feedback analysis Of regional industrial development system, the influential factors and restricting conditions are examined from aspect of micro-structure. The causes are researched, and corresponding policy suggestions are brought forward.