摘要
近几年,中国房地产市场比较热,不断掀起投资的浪潮,中国的经济随之也较快地增长。但是金融危机席卷全球,对于2009年,中国的房地产投资与经济增长又如何呢?本文立足于现实情况,采集了15年的数据先对房地产投资和GDP进行组合预测,然后运用计量经济的相关知识对这十几年的数据进行定量分析,提出自己的见解,并展望未来。
In recent years, China＇s real estate market developed faster, and continued to set off a wave of investment, so China＇s economy has been growing rapidly. However, the financial crisis was sweeping all over the world, what will China＇s real estate investment and economic growth go in 2009？ In this paper, I collect data for 15 years, firstly use the combined forecasting method to predict China＇s real estate investment and GDP, then use the knowledge of econometrics to analysis the data, finally, I express own opinion and look forward to the future.
出处
《技术经济与管理研究》
北大核心
2010年第1期22-25,共4页
Journal of Technical Economics & Management
关键词
房地产投资
经济增长
预测
格兰杰因果检验
协整分析
real estate investment
economic growth
forecast
Granger causality test
cointegration analysis
