实际有效汇率波动对上海出口商品结构的影响

The Effects of RMB Real Effective Exchange Rate Fluctuations on the Export Structure of Shanghai

文章先构建了分析实际有效汇率波动对出口商品结构影响的计量模型,然后以上海的月度数据为例,采用边限检验方法判别变量间的长期协整关系,并采用ARDL和ECM模型分析了2002—2008年期间人民币实际有效汇率波动对上海出口商品结构的长期和短期影响。结果显示无论从长期还是从短期来看,实际有效汇率的波动都会减少劳动密集型、资源密集型、资本密集型和技术密集型商品出口,但四类商品受影响程度不同,并且技术密集型商品出口方程的误差修正项系数较大,表明其出口受到冲击以后,向均衡回复的速度较快。

This paper constructed a econometric model to analyze the effects of the RMB real effective exchange rate fluctuation on the export structure first, and then taking Shanghai for example, tested the long run cointegration by using bounds tests approach, and used autoregressive distributed lag model and error correction model to test the long and short run impacts of RMB real effective exchange rate fluctuation on export structure.