湖南省耕地变化的趋势及其政策选择

ON THE CHANGING TRENDS OF CULTIVATED LAND AND ITS POLICY OPTIONS IN HUNAN

经济社会发展加快了土地利用,造成耕地资源的进一步减少,要实现经济、社会协调发展,就必须了解耕地的变化和利用状况。文章应用相关分析方法对湖南省总人口、房地产投资、城市化水平、国民生产总值指数进行分析,结果表明它们与湖南省年末实有耕地面积变化具有很大的相关性;同时又应用多元线性回归方法定量分析了湖南经济社会发展对耕地利用数量的变化状况,并根据模型预测了2010—2030年湖南省年末实有耕地面积的变化。在此基础上,提出了保护耕地的政策选择是控制人口增长、适时加快城市化进程、调整土地利用结构、提高土地效应、提高农业用地效益等。

The economic and social development has accelerated land use, resulting in a further reduction of arable land resources, to achieve economic and social development, we must understand the changes and utilization of arable land. In this paper, correlation analysis of the total population in Hunan Province, real estate investment, the level of urbanization, gross national product index analysis showed that they cultivated land area in Hunan Province at the end there is a change of great relevance, and applying multi-line regression method of quantitative analysis of the economic and social development in Hunan amount of cultivated land use change in the situation and, based on models to predict the end of Hunan Province in 2010-2030 there is a change in cultivated land, on this basis, the proposed policy options for the protection of cultivated land is controlling population growth, cities in a timely manner to speed up the process, adjusting the land use structure, improving land effects, improve effectivenessof agricultural land.