从金融“再平衡”看中国经济的可持续复苏

Sustainable Reviving of Chinese Economy from Financial Rebalance Perspective

随着全球经济的复苏和国际贸易的回升,全球的不平衡格局正在发生着积极变化。就中国而言,通过强力刺激政策实现率先复苏之后,一方面,以积极财政政策和宽松货币政策为代表的"再杠杆"政策正在进行灵敏主动的动态微调,从而避免经济出现"二次探底",同时也预警性地调控可能的通货膨胀预期和资产泡沫风险;另一方面,为了增加经济持续复苏的内在动力,实现平衡的、可持续的复苏,中国也在根据全球化的新趋势积极调整对外经济金融政策,以促进国际收支失衡的调节。从国际范围观察,全球"再平衡"进程也在前进之中,世界总需求中的消费正在从发达国家转向新兴市场,同时国际资本也开始从复苏较慢的西方发达市场流向复苏较快的东亚新兴市场。

The global pattern of imbalanced economy is experiencing aggressive transition as well as the reviving of global economic and rebounding of international trades. As to China, after the leading reviving by drastic stimulating policies, on the one hand, taking use of releverage policy including positive financial policy and accommodative monetary policy to dynamic minitrim sensitively, thereby to avoid the real works of economy meanwhile to regulate and control the possibility of inflation expectation and asset bubble risk; in the other hand, for enhancing the inner impetus of economy reviving and to obtain the balanced and sustainable reviving, China coordinates positively its foreign financial policy according to the new trend of global economy to improve the adjustment of disequilibrium. From the observation of international scope, the process of global rebalanee is developing too, the consumption of aggregate world demand is transmitting from the developed country to new emerging markets, meanwhile international capital are flowing from slowly revived of western developed markets to rapidly revived East-Asia new emerging markets.