基于供需动态均衡的物流节点物流量预测研究

Logistics Amount Prediction of Logistics Node based on Dynamic Equalization of Logistics Demand and Logistics Supply

考虑物流节点的资源环境约束条件,提出具有普适性的物流节点物流量预测方法体系,将物流节点物流需求分为趋势性、转移性和诱发性物流需求,引入生命周期理论确定物流节点成长曲线,基于供需动态均衡构建Logis-tics模型,确定物流节点物流量,并以豫南口岸物流中心为例进行实证分析,预测结果表明,较之以往预测方法,该方法更为适合物流节点发展的实际,可为物流节点选址、规模的确定、布局和合理化运营提供依据。

Thinking of resource and environment constraints of logistics node, the paper brings forward a universal logistics amount prediction method system of logistics node. We divided logistics amount of logistics node into trend, metastatic and induced logistics demand, introduces life cycle theory to compute growth curve of logistics node, then computes logistics amount of logistics node based on dynamic equalization of logistics demand and logistics supply to establish logistics model. Finally, the paper takes Yu＇nan port logistics center for example to make empirical analysis, and the prediction result shows, compared with the previous prediction method, the method is more suitable for the actual development of logistics node, also can offer the reference to the decision making of administrative departments in the logistics system location, scale, layout and operation rationalizadon.