基于时间序列的南水北调中线水源区可持续发展评价

The evaluation of sustainable development of water source in the middle line project of south-to-north water diversion

选取1998～2007年南阳市经济、资源环境、科技、人口社会4大类共18个单项评定指标，采用主成分分析法（PCA）来评价南水北调中线水源区的可持续发展状况．结果显示：南水北调中线工程水源区可持续发展的得分值总体上是上升的，2000～2002年间有波动，主要是资源环境子系统、科技子系统、人口社会子系统出现了波动的原因．同时提出水源区进一步提高可持续性发展的措施．

It is important that sustainable development of water source for the middle route project of south-tonorth water diversion. This article selected data from 1998 to 2007 of Nanyang, built four-leveled index system of economy, resources and environment, science and technology, the population and society, it contains 18 single item, uses the principal component analysis method （PCA） to appraise the sustainable development condition in the water source of south-to-north water diversion middle line. It found that the sustainable development is rising as a whole. However, it has the fluctuation because the population subsystem is fluctuation during 2000 -2002. Finally the paper puts forward some ways to promote the regional sustainable development.