灾害生命价值评估理论研究

Study on the Estimation of Value of a Statistical Life in Disasters

以生命价值定义为基础,给出了人力资本法的计算方法及其优缺点;认为支付意愿方法为生命价值评估的主流方法。基于单期的选择理论,以状态依赖的期望效用函数为基础,论述不存在遗赠意愿、存在遗赠意愿条件下降低死亡概率的边际支付意愿,揭示了改变死亡概率的边际支付意愿取决于初始的生存状态,即初始财富和初始死亡概率。个人可以通过交易重新安排消费和生存状态,达到效用最大化的目的,其条件是边际支付意愿等于提高生存概率的价格。影响生命的风险有多种,当外生风险、工作风险和消费影响死亡风险商品等风险共存条件下,风险水平高低是决定边际支付意愿的重要因素,风险越大,边际支付意愿越大。

The calculation of human based on the concept of the value of a capital approach and its advantages and disadvantages are presented statistical life （VSL）. Willingness to pay （WTP） is the mainstream method to estimate VSL. Marginal willingness to pay （MWTP） of mortality with and without bequest willing is discussed based on state-dependent von Neumann-Morgenstern utility functions. MWTP depends on their initial survival situation, including initial wealth and mortality probability. The individual can rearrange his consumption and survival position through exchange so as to maximize expected utility. The individual will equate his MWTP for enhanced survival with the given price of enhanced survival. There are many sources of risk of death. Three risks including one exogenous, one job-related, and one related to the level of consumption of a private good are considered. The level of risk is the most important factor to MWTP, the bigger the risk, the higher the MWTP.