系统动力学视角下的资源型城市经济增长机制与可持续发展分析

Resource-based Cities' Economic Growth Mechanism and Sustainable Development Analysis Based on System Dynamics

资源型城市是以矿产资源的开发利用为主,带动和支持城市经济和社会发展的独特城市类型。受矿产资源储量的制约以及资源开采过程的影响,资源型城市的发展一般经历前期开发、增产期、稳产期和衰退期等四个阶段。矿产资源的开发既是资源型城市经济发展的依托力量,但是又对城市的生态环境产生了严重的负面效应,对于资源型城市的可持续发展带来很大的影响。本文通过建立基于Logistic动力学模型的资源型城市成长和发展轨迹,对城市不同发展阶段的模拟表明,当发展要素基数达到零时,矿业对城市的经济发展所做出的贡献达到了可持续发展的阈值。资源型城市在进入衰退期以前,通过建立多元化的产业结构来摆脱对单纯产业的依赖性,从而实现资源型城市的可持续发展。

The resource-based city,a unique city economic type relying on the development and utilization of mineral resources,has been driving and promoting the city＇s economic and social development.Under the restraint of coal mining resource reserve and the mining effects of the resources,the development of coalmining cities generally undergo four stages： the starting period,the growth period,the maturity period and the declining period.The development of coal mining resources is,on the one hand,what coalmining cities＇ economic development relies on and on the other hand,has some severe negative impact on the city＇s ecological environment,having great influences on the coal mining cities＇ sustainable development.By establishing Logistic dynamics model based coal mining city growth and development track,this article simulates different development periods of the cities.This indicates that when the development element base reaches zero,the contribution of coal mining to the city＇s economic development reaches the threshold value of sustainable development.Furthermore,before the coal mining cities enter into the decline period,we establish a diversified industrial structures to avoid the dependence on one single industry to realize the coal mining cities＇ sustainable development.