基于交通出行特性的家庭概率分布及出行产生预测研究

The Research of Household Probability Distribution and Trip Production Forecast Based on Trip Characteristics of Household

应用聚类分析、交叉分类及概率论等理论方法对基于交通出行特性的家庭概率分布模型及出行产生预测进行了研究。首先对锦州市实际调查的家庭样本数据进行分析,确定初始家庭类别,然后运用系统聚类分析法对初始家庭类别进行聚类分析,用于家庭分布概率模型研究,减少了家庭样本的分类类型和研究不同类别家庭出行特性的工作量,避免了交叉分类法以往存在的一些问题。在此基础上,最终建立了家庭分布概率模型并用于预测交通产生量。

This paper apply cluster analysis, cross classification, probability method and otherwise theory method to research the trip production forecast and household probability distribution model based on trip characteristics of household. Firstly, this text analyzes the actual family survey datum of Jinzhou city to confirm the elementary kinds of family. Then, use hierachical clustering methods to analyze that, can reduce the kinds of family and the workload of research the different kinds of family＇ s trip characteristics, when applied in research the household probability distribution model that avoid the issue of use cross classification at before. Based on the study, finally constitute the household probability distribution model and applied to forecast the trip production.