沪宁高速公路路面温度变化特征及统计模型

Characteristics and Statistical Model of Road Surface Temperature on Huning Expressway

使用2006年7月—2007年6月沪宁高速公路沿线梅村和仙人山站附近的逐分钟路面温度、气温、湿度、风向、风速、降水气象资料,分析了梅村和仙人山不同季节和不同天气状况下路面温度的日变化特征。结果表明:不同季节路面温度和气温具有明显的日变化;日出至日落时段,路面温度与气温有较大差异。在此基础上,应用逐步回归方法建立了梅村和仙人山最高和最低路面温度统计模型,得出最低路面温度模型模拟结果与实况的变化趋势接近,误差绝对值不超过2℃,具有很好的实际应用价值;而最高路面温度模型在一定程度上模拟结果偏差较大,实际应用中需进行适当修订。

The relationship between road surface temperature and weather conditions is a key problem for road surface temperature prediction which can prevent and reduce traffic accidents effectively.Many countries such as Canada,Denmark,and Germany have established road weather information systems and road surface temperature numerical forecast models while China is somewhat behind. From July 2006 to June 2007,observations are carried out at Meicun and Xianrenshan stations along the Huning Expressway when road surface temperature,air temperature,humidity,wind direction,wind speed,and rainfall are recorded minutely.These data are analyzed to study the daily characteristics of expressway surface temperature for different seasons and weather conditions.On the basis of that,statistical models of minimal and maximal road surface temperature are established by stepwise regression for Meicun and Xianrenshan.It shows that daily variation characteristics of road surface temperature and air temperature are obviously different.The road surface temperature increases rapidly after sunrise and goes beyond air temperature when it is sunny or cloudy.While the discrepancy between road surface temperature and air temperature is smaller in raining days or at noon.In July,the discrepancy is extremely obvious.The simulated minimal road surface temperature is close to observations and errors are within ±2 ℃,so the model is applicable in practice.The errors for maximal road surface models are relatively large because of data limitation and not considering solar radiation impacts. The models established using statistical methods are local and need modifying when used in other regions.If more data are obtained,further research will be carried out to distinguish different seasons or weather conditions and the impact of solar radiation should be considered.