引入清洁发展机制的电力需求侧管理项目一般均衡分析

Analysis of DSM projects under Clean Development Mechanism using CGE models

使用可计算一般均衡的方法对电力需求侧管理项目的经济影响和环境影响进行分析。针对提高能源效率的电力需求侧管理项目,研究了如果引入政府给予碳补贴的清洁发展机制,电力需求侧管理项目给社会经济和环境所带来的变化。研究发现清洁发展机制将会提高福利。即使在没有清洁发展机制的情况下,如果单位电力节省成本与电价的比率为0.4或更低,需求侧管理项目将会增加经济福利。否则,要想引入清洁发展机制下的需求侧管理项目就还需要保障最终能产生有效的福利效果。但是,福利程度取决于项目的碳排放价格。对于一个给定的福利影响水平,清洁发展机制下的电力需求侧管理项目可以有效地减少产生的排放量。

In this paper,the Computable General Equilibrium（CGE） model was used to analysis the economic and environmental impact of the Demand-Side Management（DSM） project.The changes caused by DSM projects,which are expected to improve energy efficiency,to social economy and environment under the Clean Development Mechanism（CDM） with carbon subsidy were analyzed,and the study found that the CDM would increase the welfare.The DSM project would increase economic welfare if the cost/price ratio is 0.4 or lower even without CDM ; if the ratio is greater than 0.4, the CDM would be needed to achieve positive welfare. However, the size of the welfare gains depends on the price of carbon credits that the project generates. For a given level of welfare impact, the DSM project under CDM would reduce emission effectively.