国际油价波动对日本经济均衡的影响

The Impact of International Oil Price Fluctuations on Internal and External Equilibrium of Japanese Economy

2005年以来,国际原油价格剧烈震荡,除实体经济层面的供求因素外,能源作为金融商品的虚拟经济属性被放大,预期、投机、突发事件、汇率波动因素等都可能成为引燃油价波动的导火索。新的油价变动特点,使日本更加难以保持经济的内外均衡。从内部看,企业、行业间的收入分配效应分散了油价上涨的通货膨胀效果,具有技术垄断优势、善于利用金融工具避险及有效采取能源分散化和节能措施的企业与行业受油价波动的冲击更小。从外部看,进口成本增加和出口成本转嫁不完全引起了日本贸易条件恶化;石油美元通过贸易渠道和资本渠道的回流,对日本的国际收支产生一定影响;日元升值因素一定程度上缓和了高油价的冲击。日本政府、企业、居民的不懈努力创造了日本经济超低能耗的奇迹,这个奇迹将日本抵御油价波动的能力变成现实。

Since 2005, international crude oil price has been severely shocking. In addition to supply and demand factors of the real economy dimensions, the virtual economic attributes of energy as financial products are magnified, and expectation, speculation, unexpected events, exchange rate fluctuations are all likely to ignite oil price. Characteristics of the new changes in oil prices make Japan maintain internal and external equilibrium of economy harder. From the internal perspective, the effects of the distribution of income between enterprise and industry disperse inflation effects of increasing oil prices. The businesses and indus- tries with the technological monopoly advantage, good at avoiding danger by using financial instruments, making effective use of energy diversification and energy saving measures, are affected less by oil price inflation; from an external perspective, the increase of import cost and the pass of export cost make Japanese trade terms deteriorate in part. The appreciation of the yen, to some extent, eases the impact of oil prices, the tireless efforts of the Japanese government, enterprises and residents create Japan economic miracle of ultralow power, which will make Japan＇s ability to withstand fluctuations in oil prices become a reality.