论佩利类比设计论证的力量

On the Power of Paley's Analogical Design Argument

佩利曾提出关于上帝的类比设计论证。为解释该论证的理性根据以及如何可能根据这种论证的力度来为设计假设指派先验概率,介绍了佩利的设计论证及某些对该论证的批评,解释了人们从佩利设计论证的类比版本转向释然度版本的原因。认为基于释然度原则的设计论证并不能独自成立,类比仍然与设计论证有关。用Jeffery-Bolker等值定理阐明为什么形式类比是有力的,以及形式类比如何为设计假设指派先验概率。

Paley once generated the analogical design argument for the God＇ s existence. This paper tries to show the rational foundation of Paley＇ s analogical design argument and explain how is it possi- ble to designate the priori probability to the design hypothesis according to the power of the analogical argument. Firstly, this paper makes an introduction about the Paley＇ s analogical design argument and some critiques to it, then, explains why people intend to turn design arguments from the analogical version into the likelihood version. Secondly, this paper tries to argue that likelihood can＇ t stand on its own, and the analogy is still relevant to the design argument. Finally, this paper uses Jeffery-Bolk- er Equivalence Theorem to explicate why the formal analogy has its power, and how the formal analogy helps us to designate the priori probability to the design hypothesis.