财政赤字、人口结构与国民储蓄——来自中国经济的经验证据(1978—2008)

Fiscal Deficits,Demographic Structure and National Savings——empirical evidence from China economy 1978—2008

在探讨财政赤字与国民储蓄的理论关系及中国国民储蓄影响因素的基础上,在6变量系统内检验1978—2008年中国财政赤字与国民储蓄的关系。结果显示,中国财政赤字、国民储蓄、实际GDP、实际利率、CPI和人口结构指标之间存在长期均衡的协整关系;并存在从财政赤字、实际利率、CPI和人口结构指标到国民储蓄的Granger因果关系。随着财政赤字增加、实际利率水平上升和CPI水平提高,国民储蓄减少;随着实际GDP增加、就业人员占总人口的比重提高,国民储蓄增加。这为重新估计中国财政政策及中国人口结构变动的作用提供了理论依据和实证支持,也从一个新的角度解释了中国国民储蓄变动的原因。

Based on the exploration on the theoretical relationship between fiscal deficits and national savings and the influential factors for China national saving, the relationship between national deficits and national savings from 1978--2008 in China was verified with a six-variable system. The results show that there is a long-term balanced cointegration relationship among the, and a Granger cause- effect relationship from fiscal deficit, actual interest rate, CPI and demographic indexes to national savings. National savings declines with the increase of fiscal deficits, actual interest rates and CPI, while national savings increases with the increase of GDP and the proportion of employment to the total population. This provides theoretical evidence and empirical support for the re-evaluating the effects of Chinese financial policies and China demographic structure change, and explains the reasons for the change of China national savings from a new perspective as well.