气候背景分析在上海奉贤菜花节天气预测中的应用

Application on Climate Background Analysis for Weather Forecasting of Cauliflower Festival in Shanghai Fengxian

根据上海奉贤地区1960～2009年常规气象要素观测资料,分析了奉贤"菜花节"举办期间(3月26日至4月15日)气候变化特征,特别是2000年以来主要气象要素、降水概率和气象灾害分布特点,结果表明:20世纪60～90年代"菜花节"期间降水量(平均气温)基本围绕多年平均值呈"多(低)→少(高)→多(低)→少(高)周期性变化,自2000年以来则延续降水减少、气温增暖的变化趋势,气候转折特征明显;近9年(2000～2008年)"菜花节"期间的降水以过程性天气为主,且以夜间降水居多,总体适合节庆活动开展。

Based on the meteorological observational dates in Shanghai Fengxian from 1960 ~2009,the characteristics of climate change in cauliflower festival between March 26 and July 15,especially from the main meteorological element,precipitation probability and meteorological damage distribution was studied in Fengxian.The results showed that：the Precipitation（average temperature）existed periodicity variation of the more（low）→less（high）→more（low）→less（high）around the average value in 1960s to 1990s in cauliflower festival of Fengxian. Since 2000, change trend of precipitation decreased and average temperature increasing was continued,and show climatic transition characteristics was significantly and precipitation at night was in the majority in cauliflower festival of rape in Fengxian during 2000-2008 ,and these trends was fit to hold cauliflower festival of rape activities.