用灰色理论予测我区粮食产需平衡问题

A Prediction on tne Balance of Production and Consumption of Grain in Our Autonomous Region by Using the Blue System

本文是根据我区几年来,粮食生产和社会消费量的历史资料,用灰色系统理论建立了数学模型,经验证,模型符合要求,用此模型预测了我区近中期粮食生产和消费的变动趋势。根据预测结果的分析,到1995年实现我区粮食自给是可能的,但必须在提高单产和增加细粮生产的问题上,采取相应的对策。

The Blue System Theotem was used to establish a mathematical model according to the historical data of both grain production and social consumption of our autonomous region in recent years, After being tested, the model was proven to meet the hypothesis. This model was used to predict the short-and mediumrun trend of grain production and consumption in our autonomous region,According to the analysis of the prediction result, it will be possible to be selfsufficient in grain production after 1995. However, we mustma ke appropriate strategies in raising the production of per mu and increasing the grain production.