世界经济缓慢而坚定地走向复苏——关于2010年货币政策和外汇市场的分析

World economy:A slow but steady recovery—An outlook for the monetary policies and FX markets in 2010

文章通过对各主要经济体的经济形势、货币政策与汇率走势的分析与预测,指出2010年世界经济正在缓慢而坚定地走向复苏,主要表现为:在各国政府和市场力量的推动下,世界经济形势好于预期,但受金融体系尚未恢复和"退出战略"两难困境等因素的影响,复苏进程仍面临很多困难;受经济复苏的不平衡性,全球利率调整将出现分歧,但随着世界经济形势的好转,国际外汇市场开始逐步回稳,主要货币汇率的小幅双向波动在短期内得以延续。

This paper analyzes and predicts the economic tendencies, monetary policies and exchange rate trends in major economies, and points out that the global economy will see a slow but steady recovery in 2010. Specifically, the global economy will fare better than expected thanks to the combined efforts of governments and the markets. However, the recovery will still have many challenges due to the understrain financial system and the dilemma of an exit strategy. Economic recovery will be unbalanced and the adjustment orientations of global interest rates will diverge. But with the recovering global economy, the international FX market will gradually stabilize and major currencies will continue their narrow bidirectional fluctuations in the short term.