环渤海地区房地产泡沫实证分析

Empirical Analysis on Real Estate Bubble of the Bohai Rim Region

近年来,随着改革开放的深入发展和经济实力的不断提升,环渤海地区房地产市场步入快速发展期,房地产价格也随之持续上涨,房地产市场呈现明显的泡沫化特征。选取环渤海地区代表性城市1999—2007年的房地产市场相关指标数据,在对各城市房地产市场进行描述性分析的基础上,利用因子分析法对各城市的房地产泡沫进行了实证测度。研究结果表明:环渤海地区各城市在房地产发展中基本都存在泡沫现象,其中北京、天津、大连和青岛市场的泡沫化较为显著,沈阳、济南市场泡沫化轻微,石家庄市场泡沫化不明显。

With the rapid development of reform and＇the sustained rise of economic strength, the real estate market of the Bohai Rim Region has come into a new stage of continuous development along with the higher housing price and shown some characteristics of the bubble. In this paper, according to indicators data of the housing market （1999-2007）, real estate bubble of various cities around the Bohai Sea region is measured empirically by the method of the factor analysis based on the descriptive analysis of their own real estate market. The empirical results show almost all cities of the Bohai Rim Region have a bubble with the quite significant bubble of Beijing, Tianjin, Dalian, and Qingdao, the relatively minor bubble of $henyang and Jinan, and almost no bubble in Shijiazhuang.