基于离差加权的煤矿突水水源判别模型及应用

The discrimination model based on the deviation weighing method of inrushed water sources in coal mine and its application

矿井突(涌)水水源的快速识别是矿井水害有效防治的前提条件。针对应用模糊综合评判方法解决水源判别常用的"超标加权法"和"偏标加权法"确定判别因子的权重系数方面存在的不足,结合方差分析中的离差分解法,提出了矿井突水水源判别权重系数确定的离差加权法;利用SPSS软件,并以淮南潘三矿为例,对上述3种模型进行对比分析研究。结果表明:基于离差加权的模糊综合评判能够有效的判别突水水源,比"超标加权法"和"偏标加权法"有更高的判别率;基于离差加权的模糊综合评判具有原理清晰、结构简单、运算量小、更为合理等优点,适合快速识别水源,为矿井水害防治提供了一种辅助决策手段。

Rapid discrimination of the water bursting sources is the precondition of preventing water-inrush from coal floor effectively. This paper puts forward a method for determining the weighting coefficient, deviation weighing method with reference to a deviation decomposition method in variance analysis, in the light of the shortages of the “super weighting method” and “biasing weighting method” that are commonly used to determine the weighting coefficient of the judging factors for solving the discrimination of the water bursting sources with the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation; Using SPSS, the example of Huainan Pansan mine had been studied with the three fuzzy models. The results show that the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation based on the deviation weighing method which has an advantage of “super weighting method” and “biasing weighting method” can make the discrimination of the water bursting sources more effective. Considering its characters such as clear principle, simple structure and more suitability, the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation based on the deviation weighing method suits for rapid discrimination of the water bursting sources and provides an assistant means for decision-making to prevent water-inrush from coal floor.