区域干旱特征分析与预测研究

Analysis and Forecast on Regional Drought Characteristics

在分析区域干旱特征的基础上,以邢台市1959年实测降水量系列为样本,利用灰色理论和方法建立GM(1,1)预测模型并进行预测。通过对计算结果进行历史拟合和精度检验分析,模型精度高适用性好,预测结果与实际状况吻合,符合区域干旱的灰色特性。

Drought is the major natural disasters in Xingtai City.which is an important factor in constraining the regional socio-economic development. With 59 year series of measured precipitation as a sample and using the gray theory and methods to establish GM （1,1） prediction model. based on the characteristics and laws by historical data in Xingtai City,we predicted the future drought. After the history matching of calculation results and precision tests, average accuracy of the model residual test was 96.6 %, a posterior differential test accuracy was＂good＂, the effect was relatively ideal, which might provide the necessary predictive information for a regional drought mitigation. The results of this study played an im portant role for the deployment of drought mitigation measures.