工业事故时间序列混沌特性判定及其实证研究

Determinant and demonstration study on the chaos characteristics about time serial of the industry accident

传统的理论已难以解释工业事故系统中的无序、不规则和复杂的演变过程,因此利用混沌理论来分析工业事故系统中的变化规律将成为工业事故非线性动力学理论控制研究的热点。从工业事故时间序列出发,对其进行分析,初步结果表明,工业事故时间序列具有混沌动力系统的一些特征,对此文中提出了通过相空间重构以及Lyapunov指数来判定工业事故时间序列的混沌特性。最后以我国南方某省的工业事故时间序列为例实证研究了混沌特性判定问题。结果表明该研究对预防和控制工业事故的发生,改善我国工业安全生产状况具有指导意义。

It is difficult to explain the disorder, irregular and complex course of evolvement in the system of industry accident by traditional theory. Using the theory of chaos to analyze the change law of which will be a hot point in the study of controlling the industrial accident by nonlinear dynamics theory. After analyzing the Time Serial of industry accident, the preliminary result shows that the industry accident time serial has some characteristics of chaotic behavior, and its chaotic characteristics are judged by using phase space reconstruction and Lyapunov exponents. Finally, taking dent time serial of a province in south China as an example, the determinant problem the industry acei- of the chaos char- acteristics is studied. It is showed that the research has guidance meaning for the prevention and control of the industry accident, as well as the improvement of the safety production condition of China＇s industry.