农业保险投保率变迁的进化博弈分析

Game Analysis of Evolution of Agricultural Insurance Participation Rate

农业保险投保率的变迁是一个缓慢的、渐近的、诱致性的制度变迁过程。农业保险制度的效率决定了投保率变迁的速度、方向与均衡;投保潜在收益的大小、潜在收益被发现的难易程度及模仿对象的多少则是影响投保率变迁和均衡形成的关键因素。投保率缓慢但稳定的提高是农业保险可持续的保证,而迅速但不可持续的提高则是农业保险改革要克服的痼疾。

The evolution of the participation rate of agricultural insurance is a slow, accumulative inductive institutional process driven by latent interest of participation. The efficiency of the agricultural insurance system determines the speed, direction and equilibrium of this evolution. The amount of latent participation interest, th.e difficulty of finding out the latent interest and the number of models to learn from are the key factors that affect the evolution and equilibrium. Slow but stable rise of participation is the guarantee for the sustainability of agricultural insurance, speedy but non-sustainable rise is the shortcoming which agricultural insurance must overcome.