亚硝胺暴露剂量、时间与肺癌效应关系和致癌多阶段模型的探讨

Relationship between Dose and Duration of Exposure to Nitrosoamine and Risk of Lung Cancer and Its Multistage Theory of Carcinogenesis

目的分析该橡胶工人队列中亚硝胺暴露及与其有关的时间变量的肺癌危险度。方法应用Ｐｏｉｓｏｎ相乘模型和致癌多阶段理论。结果肺癌危险度随亚硝胺暴露年数增加而稳定升高，从暴露开始后经过一个潜隐期（大约２０～３０年），肺癌危险度达到最高峰，然后迅速下降。

Objective To analyze their exposure to nitrosoamine and relevant temporal variables on the risk of lung cancer in a cohort of rubber workers. Methods Poisson multiplicative relative risk model and multistage theory of carcinogenesis were used. Results Risk of lung cancer increased steadily with duration of exposure to nitrosoamine,which reached the peak after a latency,about 20 to 30 years after initiation of exposure and then lowered rapidly. Conclusion The pattern of exposure to nitrosoamine shown in the rubber workers conformed with the features of a late stage carcinogen for lung cancer.