摘要
以会商式台风综合预报为背景,首先,分析了传统会商式台风综合预报存在的不足。其次,针对这些不足提出了改进意见:针对参与者意见的集结问题,提出了融合有序综合评价和专家权值的群体偏好集结算法;针对会商要求参与者坐在PC前面的问题,引入了基于J2ME的手机专家;针对会商结论受主观因素影响较大的特点,引入了以各种客观预报方法为基础的客观专家。最后,给出了改进后的台风综合预报GDSS整体流程,设计并实现了原型系统。
This paper is based on typhoon comprehensive forecast. First, it analyzes the drawbacks of traditional typhoon forecast. Second, it makes some improvements according to these drawbacks： it puts forward a preference algorithm based on sequential evaluation and expert weight to collect the group＇ s opinions; it introduces a mobile expert based on J2ME, which allows the attendant to take part in the negotiation meeting without sitting in front of the computer; it introduces an objective forecast expert based on all kinds of objective forecast methods. At last, it brings forward the modified typhoon forecast GDSS process and implementes the prototype system.
出处
《计算机与现代化》
2010年第2期11-14,共4页
Computer and Modernization
基金
福建省自然科学基金资助项目(A0710007)
