城市供水规划的自回归分布滞后模型研究

The research on the autoregressive distributed lag model of urban water supply planning

通过对广州市年用水量的分析,考虑时间、区内生产总值、人口、对用水量的影响,运用并建立自回归分布滞后预测模型,对规划用水量进行预测,实例分析说明自回归分布滞后模型预测城市用水量是可行的,具有很高的精度。

Combined with the consideration of the impact of time, GDP, population and to water consumption, it predicts planned water sup- ply by the establishment and application of autoregressive distributed lag model through the analysis of the annual water consumption of Guangzhou city. The case study shows that it＇s applicable for autoregressive distributed lag model which is with high accuracy.