近50a来气候变化和人类活动对且末县水资源的影响

The Impact of Climate Change and Anthropogenic Activities on Water Resources Variation During the Past 50 Years in Qerchen

利用且末县近50a的气象、水文、社会经济数据,分析了多年来且末水资源及其各影响因素的变化情况,结合相关分析、主成分分析对影响水资源变化的各因素进行定量分析,结果表明:近50a来且末水资源总量变化不大,但年变幅度较大;年均降水量和年均气温有上升的趋势,人类活动频繁。主成分分析后得到两个主成分,累计贡献率可达80%以上,第一主成分可解释为人为因子,第二主成分可解释为气候因子,说明人类活动对水资源的影响远大于气候变化的影响。图7,表3,参13。

In this article, the change of water resources and its related factors during the 50 years in Qerchen County were studied by applying the method of both correlation and principal component analysis via using the meteorological, hydrological, and socioeconomic data. Results indicated that during the past 50 years the total water resources of Qerchen county did not occur dramatic change while annual change of it is obvious. At the same time, human activities are more frequent and average annual precipitation and temperatures are showing the tendency of rising. The results of principal component analysis indicated that cumulative contribution of first and second factor reached more than 80%, of which first factor can be explain as human activity, and second factor as climatic factors. All men- tioned above we can come to the conclusion that human activity has great impact on water resources change compared with climate change.