农业机械总动力及其影响因素的时间序列分析——以江苏省为例

Analysis on the Relationship Between Gross Power of Agricultural Machinery and Key Influencing Factors based on Time Series Analysis

对一个地区的农业机械总动力及其影响因素进行分析可为当地农业机械化发展目标的制定提供可靠依据。本文采集了江苏省1989～2006年的相关数据,对江苏省农业机械总动力及其影响因素进行了相关性分析分析,并用自相关时间序列回归分析方法建立了模型。结果表明,影响农业机械总动力的6个关键因素的相关性排序为:农村剩余劳动力转移率、农村居民家庭人均纯收入、粮食播种面积、政府的财政投入、农民受教育程度和粮食单产,它们与农业机械总动力的相关系数分别为0.9396、0.9384、0.8924、-0.8778、0.8671和0.7224,并得出了较高精度的农业机械总动力的自相关时间序列回归模型(R2=0.998),模型预测结果的平均偏差为0.68%。

In order to make strategies to develop agricultural mechanization, it＇ s necessary to find the relation between the gross powers of agri- cultural machinery and it＇s key influencing factors. 17 years related data were collected in Jiangsu province, and relativity analysis and auto- correlation time series regression analysis were also carried out based on these data. The results show there are 6 key influencing factors with good relation to gross power of agricultural machinery, which are shift ratio from farmer labor to city one, average net income per rural family, total plant area, government financial support, farmers＇ education level and grain yields per hectare, their correlation coefficient to the gross power are 0.9396, 0.9384, 0.8924, -0.8778, 0.8671and 0.7224 respectively, high accuracy autocorrelation time series regression model is also developed（ R2 =0.998 ） , and its average forecast errors is 0.68%.