基于净初级生产力的生态足迹模型及其与传统模型的对比分析

Comparison and analysis of traditional ecological footprint and the other based on net primary production

生态足迹模型因其可以定量度量生态可持续发展、计算简单、结论易懂、全球可比等特点,提出之后得到了大量的关注和应用,同时也面临着一些质疑和争论。文章介绍了一种基于净初级生产力的生态足迹理论和计算方法,并以该方法和传统生态足迹模型分别计算了中国1961—2007年的生态足迹,对计算结果进行了对比分析。结果表明,两种生态足迹模型的计算结果具有较高的相关性,表明基于净初级生产力的生态足迹模型结果可信。该种方法能够克服传统生态足迹模型的部分缺陷,在均衡因子选取、土地生态功能假设、CO2吸收等方面有了较大改进,能够较好地反映不同生态系统在生产力上的差异;在时间序列分析方面也更加合理。但该方法本身同时存在着计算方法不完善、对生态系统变化不敏感等问题,如何更紧密地结合生态足迹和净初级生产力是需要进一步研究的内容。

Ecological footprint model is an important and effective method to quantify the biosphere＇s ability to regenerate; it has a number of advantages： the method is simple, the explanation of conclusions is easy, and the conclusion is comparable at the global range. Due to these characteristics, ecological footprint has been made a great deal of attention and application after being proposed. Many researchers put forward lots of suspicions and debates about its theorie~, calculated methods, choice of equivalence factor, et al. In this paper, a new approach of ecological footprint, which is based on net primary productivity method, is presented in detail. The ecological footprints of China were calculated during 1961--2007 with the new approach and the traditional method. The results of the two methods of ecological footprint have good correlation relationship, so the new approach is reliable. The new approach can overcome some defects of the traditional method in terms of choice of equivalence factor, assumptions of land functions and CO2 adsorption, and so on. The new approach is more reasonable than the traditional method in trend analysis of time series. However, the new approach has its own problems, such as the imperfect of calculating course, insensitivity to changes in ecosystem, and so on. Studies of closer integration of the ecological footprint and net primary productivity are needed,