高技术产业生命周期及其非技术因素分析

Hi-tech Industry Life Cycle and Its Non-technical Factors Influence

在前人研究的基础上,提出了高技术产业生命周期模型,认为高技术产业发展的第一循环应当经历6个阶段,即产业萌芽阶段、产业扩张阶段、产业集聚阶段、产业主导阶段、产业突破阶段和产业转移阶段。但是,高技术产业生命周期还具有明显的"衰而不亡"的特性,即产业存在着停滞期,这种延长的停滞期与孕育期交替出现的周期现象,具有深刻的非技术因素机理,并对非技术因素及机理进行了深入的分析。

On the basis of their predecessors, the authors of this paper put forward a high-tech industry life cycle model, and maintain that the first cycle of the high-tech industry development consists of six consecutive phases, namely, industry infancy, industry expansion stage, industry clustering, industry-led phase, industry breakthrough and industry transfer. However, the life cycle of high-tech industry also has obvious ＂ bad bat not fatal＂ characteristics, that is to say, there is a period of stagnation in the industry. This extended period of stagnation and the incubation period is the turn of the cycle, which has a profound mechanism of non-technical factors. The paper gives an indepth analysis of these non-technical factors and mechanism.