门槛面板单位根模型及中国区域经济增长的非线性

Panel Threshold Unit Root Model and Nonlinearities of Regional Growth in China

基于面板门槛单位根模型,利用可行广义最小二乘法(FGLS),运用bootstrap模拟计算临界值的方法,从新的视角研究我国区域经济发展趋势特征。研究结论表明:中国区域经济增长呈现出显著非线性转换特征,经济增长率在收敛的方式上存在着显著的门槛效应。第一组的部分区域在区制Ⅰ中(小于门槛值1.81)表现绝对收敛的转移动态,反之,则表现为条件收敛;第二组以及第三组中的部分区域在其所对应的区制Ⅰ均表现为绝对收敛,而在区制Ⅱ中则为发散的。

This paper first applies panel data threshold unit root model, Feasible Generalized Least Squares （FGLS） approach and the computation of critical values by bootstrap simulation to test regional growth convergence in China. The empirical result suggests that there is nonlinearity transit characteristic of economic growth. Partial provinces of the first group are unconditional convergence in regime one when the growth rate of capita GDP is smaller than 1.81, on other conditions it is conditional convergence. The absolute convergence of partial region which is included in the second and third group is detected in regime one, but all are divergences in regime two.