收入对居民消费影响的结构性路径分析:江苏案例

Structural Path Analysis on Influence of Income on Residents′ Consumption Demand: Jiangsu Case

基于社会核算矩阵(SAM)和SAM结构性路径分析模型,以江苏为例,研究扩大居民消费需求的路径选择问题.主要研究结论:第一,增加收入的确可以实现扩大内需的目标,但是,对不同行业的效果存在很大差异.其中,对食品消费相关产业与居住消费相关的产业影响较大;第二,影响商品(服务)消费需求变动主要是直接相关行业,而传导机制主要依赖于传导速度较快的直接路径,但效果并非最好;第三,提高农村居民收入水平更能有效地拉动居住和交通通讯消费产业的经济效益,而文教娱乐消费行业经济效益的提高更主要是依赖于城镇居民消费需求的变动;第四,农村应将投资重点放在信息化、公共基础设施等方面,城镇应将投资重点放在服务业以及消费转化效应较大的科技、教育、文化、卫生等社会事业领域.

Based on SAM and SAM structural path analysis, this paper studies on the paths to improve residents＇ consumption demand, taking Jiangsu province as example. We draw the main conclusions as follows ： Firstly, income increasing can surely come to the end of expanding domestic demanel. But the effect has great diversity between different industries, in which influences on industries about food consumption and residence consumption are bigger; Secondly, changes of commodities （services） consumptions are mostly related to effects on their directly correlated industries. Their transmission mechanisms mainly depend on direct path, which transmits faster. But the effect is not surely the best; Thirdly, comparing to urban residents, improving rural residents＇ income can effectively improve more economic benefits of residence and traffic and communications industries, while the improvement of recreation, education and cultural services industries＇ ＇economic benefit mostly depends on the changing of urban residents consumption; Fourthly, the investment in country must emphasize on communications, common basic establishments and so on, while service industries and social projects with greater consumption transforming effects such as science and technology, education, culture, medical services in town.