可接受风险与灾害研究

Acceptable Risk and Disaster Research

灾害风险研究的根本目的就是要回答"怎样的安全才是安全",可接受风险正是解决这一问题的常用方法,其是在现有社会、经济、政治和环境条件下人们认为可以接受的潜在损失。从20世纪60年代末开始,一些国家和地区在生命可接受风险原则和标准上进行了大量探索,但是灾害可接受风险研究还不多。目前可接受风险的主要研究方法有风险矩阵方法、成本效益分析、生活质量指数和FN曲线图法,多以定量风险分析为基础。在总结国内外可接受风险研究的基础上,本文对灾害可接受风险研究进行了展望,期望通过对生命风险、经济风险和环境风险三种表达形式的探索,来促进自然灾害可接受风险的综合研究,应尽快建立符合我国国情的灾害可接受风险标准,达到灾害风险控制和风险管理的目的。

The purpose of disaster risk assessment is to assess ＂how safe is safe enough？＂ Acceptable risk is the common method to answer the question which is defined as the level of potential losses that people considers acceptable given existing social, economic, political and environmental conditions. Many countries and regions had a number of explorations on life acceptable risk, but only a few of them were about disaster acceptable risk, and they focused on three types of disaster of landslide, earthquake and flood. According to the risk or its consequence, many countries established quantitative criteria of acceptable risk and most of them were similar. At present the methodology of acceptable risk included risk matrix, cost-benefit analysis, life quality index and FN curves. Risk matrix was based on qualitative analysis and commonly used in the countries lack of data and technology. The three others were based on quantitative analysis, of which cost-benefit analysis was the most commonly used as early as 1969. Life quality index sovled the economical value of life by the combination of GDP, life expectancy and the ratio of work and leisure. And the advantage of FN curves was its expression of graph, howerver its disadvantage was how to calculate the frequency. Now the challenges are uncertainty evaluation, probability assignment, rational value of life, distinction between objective and subjective value and environmental damage. On the basis of a summary of acceptable risk researches home and abroad, this paper prospects that the basic problem of disaster acceptable risk are theory, criteria and methodology of acceptable risk. By three different expressions of life risk, economical risk and environmental risk, this paper proposes that it is necessary to establish the principles and criteria of acceptable risk conformed to our national conditions, and promotes the integrated study on acceptable risk, so as to provide scientific bases for disaster control and risk management.