制度变迁与经济增长质量:理论分析与计量检验

Institutional Change and Quality of Economic Growth:Theoretic Analysis and Metrological Proof-test

本文提出有效的制度变迁是经济增长质量变化的重要原因这一假说,论述了制度变迁对经济增长质量的作用机理,并依据1992-2007年数据检验了二者长期因果关系。结论是制度变迁是中国经济增长质量的长期格兰杰原因。中国经济增长质量总体呈上升趋势,但与经济增长速度并不同步。提高经济增长质量需要从制度方面加以型塑,逐步实现经济增长与质量提高进行同步。

This article proposes a theoretical hypothesis that institutional change is the important causation to the quality of economic growth. It also discusses and tests the effect and the causality between them based on the data from 1992 to 2007. The result reveals that institutional change affects the quality of economic growth in long term. Generally, the quality of economic growth is improved, but not keeping pace with the rate of economic growth. Therefore, in order to improve the quality of economic growth, it is necessary to consummate the institution, so as to achieve synchronization of both economic growth and quality improvement step by step.