我国货币政策自主性的实证研究

An Empirical Study of the Autonomy of Monetary Policies in China

基于货币目标区模型、货币政策反应方程以及外汇储备与基础货币之间的关系方程,对2005年7月汇改前后我国货币政策自主性变化情况进行的实证研究结果表明,汇改后我国的利率政策自主性较汇改前增强,但货币数量政策则由汇改前的具备自主性变为汇改后的缺乏自主性;在我国,通过增强汇率制度弹性以提高利率政策自主性是可行的,但对货币数量政策并不成立。研究结果还表明,我国应以利率作为货币政策中介目标。

This paper carries out an empirically study of the changes of the autonomy of China＇s monetary policies before and after the reform of exchange rate started on July 21, 2005 with the model of monetary target zone, the monetary policy reaction function and the relation function between foreign exchange reserve and base money. The results indicate that after the reform, the autonomy of China＇s interest rate policies has been improved; however, the monetary quantitative policies became lack of autonomy. In China, it is feasible to improve the autonomy of interest rate policy by enhancing the elasticity of exchange rate system, but it does not work in improving the autonomy of monetary quantitative policies. In addition, China should take interest rate as the intermediate target for its monetary policy.