中国儿童死亡状况的国际比较

An international comparison of child mortality in China

目的:从全球视角研究中国在实现MDG4进程中的现状和趋势,分析与中国国情类似国家之间的差距。方法:利用WHO和UNICEF年度报告公布的数据,一是描述世界婴儿以及5岁以下儿童死亡的现状、发展趋势;二是比较中国的婴儿以及5岁以下儿童死亡负担及其变化趋势在世界各国中所处的位置;三是分别选出人均GDP(ppp)、总和生育率、成人识字率以及城市化率4项指标与中国类似的10个国家进行比较。结果:16年间虽然各国儿童健康总体状况持续改善,但是离MDG4所要求的4.3%的下降速率尚存在不小差距。中国在儿童死亡率的相对水平上表现尚可,但是绝对死亡负担居世界前列。从下降速率来看,中国在世界上排位居中,但近年的世界排名有所退步。同时婴儿死亡率的平均年下降速率为3.29%,5岁以下儿童死亡率平均年下降速率为3.35%,略低于实现MDG4所要求的4.3%。结论:中国的婴儿以及5岁以下儿童死亡率均低于世界平均水平,在死亡率的绝对水平上表现尚可。但是因为人口基数较大,婴儿以及5岁以下儿童死亡人数的负担居世界前列。与中国国情类似的国家中,秘鲁、南斯拉夫、伯利兹、斯里兰卡、越南、印尼和埃及的表现都要优于中国,其成功经验值得借鉴。

Objective： To investigate the status and tendency of China in achieving MDG 4, analyze the disparities between China and other countries with similar socioeconomic situations. Methods： According to the publicized data from WHO and UNICEF, the status and tendency of mortality of infants and children under 5 years in the world were described ; the mortality of infants and children under 5 years and change tendency in China and their positions in the world were compared to other countries; 10 countries with similar situations based on GDP （PPP）, total fertility rates, adults literacy rates and urbanization rates were selected and compared. Results： Total status of children health in the world improved continuously during the past 16 years, however, the reduction rate was far from the standard of MDG4 （4. 3% ） . The relative level of children mortality in China was ecumenical, but the absolute level of children mortality was high in the world. In terms of the reduction rate, China was placed in the middle but the rank backslided a little. The annual reduction rates of children mortality was 3.29% in infants and 3.35% in children under 5 years. Conclusion： The mortalities of infants and children under 5 years in China are lower than the average levels in the world, the relative level of children mortality in China is ecumenical. However, due to the large population base, children mortality burdens in China are high and rank on the frontline worldwide. Among the countries with similar situations as China, Peru, Yugoslavia, .Belize, Sri Lanka, Viet Nam, Indonesia and Egypt perform better in terms of children mortality, which motivates further research on their successful experiences.