货币调整中我国资本市场信息传递效果研究

The Study of Information Tuansfering Efficiency in China Capital Market Toward Manetary Adjustment

根据对1998—2009年间我国货币供应量、利率、股票市场规模、实体经济的四变量VAR模型分析判断，我国资本市场并不能对以经济增长为目标的货币政策调整信息进行及时有效的传导；且引起了货币当局产生“上期货币政策调整不够”的认识误差。这些情况实际反映出货币调整不足以使公众对未来经济，尤其是实体经济保持乐观预期。我国应努力不断改进实体经济的健康运行机制，以使公众对未来经济保持稳定和较高的收益预期。

Using related monthly data from 1998.1 to 2009.4, author analyze the real function of capital market in monetary policy transfer chain by VAR model. And found the whole transfer chain of Chinese monetary policy is not efficient, especially in interest rate- capital market part. But capital market has other functions in this chain： because of cognitive bias from capital market and real economy sector, monetary authority may hold more powerful monetary policy in same direction.