浙江省经济增长与环境质量演进关系的实证研究

An Empirical Study on the Relationship between Economic Growth and Environmental Quality Evolvement in Zhejiang Province

基于浙江省1981-2006年的环境与经济数据,运用三次环境库兹涅茨模型对工业"三废"排放量与经济发展的关系进行模拟,研究发现浙江省工业"三废"排放与经济发展之间的关系不完全符合典型的"倒U"型的库兹涅茨特征,而是呈N型波动或同步关系。其中,工业废水排放量的EKC呈"U+倒U"型曲线组合得到的"倒N"型,工业固体废弃物产生量的EKC呈"倒U+U"型曲线组合得到的N型,工业废气排放量的EKC与经济发展关系呈同步关系,目前这些曲线尚未达到转折点,仍处于上升期,表明浙江省目前还未进入工业化后期,仍处于由中期向后期转变的过程中,并据此提出了浙江省实现经济发展与环境保护双赢目标的政策建议。

Based on the environmental and economic data of Zhejiang Province from 1981 to 2006,the third power model was used to simulate the relations between industrial ＂three wastes＂ and economic development. The results showed that the relations between industrial ＂three wastes＂ and economic development didn＇t completely accord with the Environmental Kuznets Curve（EKC） characteristics of reversed U shape. The fitted curves presented N shape or synchronous relations. The industrial waste water EKC showed a reversed N shape combined with U and reversed U shape. The industrial waste solid EKC presented a N shape combined with reversed U and U shape. The industrial waste gas EKC is synchronous with the economic development. Now these EKCs have not reached the turning point and are in growing period, which shows that it has not entered into the later stage of industrial development in Zhejiang Province,and is on the process of transforming from middle stage to later stage. On this basis some suggestion and measures are put forward to achieve the win-win aim for economic development and environmental protection in Zhejiang Province.