中国入境旅游目的地竞争份额-偏移方法分析

Shift-Share Analysis on Competition of Inbound Tourism Destination in China

从旅游空间竞争视角,以1990-2008年中国入境旅游统计数据为样本,运用份额-偏移模型分析入境旅游目的地空间竞争及增长类型。结果显示,九大旅游带之间和旅游带内部的竞争均十分激烈,且旅游带之间的竞争远大于旅游带内部的竞争;吴越文化江南水乡风光等4个旅游带具有较强的竞争优势,而岭南文化南亚热带-热带风光、京华古今风貌等5个旅游带则处于竞争劣势;浙江、江苏表现为较大的正偏移增长,具有较强的竞争力,而广东、北京为较大的负偏移增长,表明入境旅游竞争力呈现下降趋势。

Based on the statistical data of inbound tourism from 1990 to 2008 in China, the shift-share method is used to show the spatial pattern of inbound tourism competition and evolution in this paper. The results are as follows： 1） Volume of total shift is significant growth,not only inter-belt but also intra-belt increases greatly. 2） Volume of inter-belt shift is far larger than intra-belt, it means that the competition intensity of inter-belt is far larger than intra-belt. Namely, it is competition among tourism belts; it is cooperation inside tourism belt. 3） Based on analysis of inter-belt shift, the inter-belt shift is divided into growth type and latent decline type. Growth type includes stronger growth type, continuous growth type and fluctuation growth type. Wuyue Culture and Water Town in Southern Yangtze River tourism belt belongs to stronger growth type, White Mountain Black Water Northland scene tourism belt is continuous growth type,Chinese Civilization Search for Ancient Relics tourism belt and Silk Road Pursuit Journey Ethnic Groups Customs tourism belt are fluctuation growth type. Latent decline type includes latent strong decline type and latent gentle decline type. Lingnan Culture Subtropics-Tropics tourism belt and Peking Ancient-Modern scene tourism belt belong to latent strong decline type, Southwest China Strange Mountain Beautiful Water Ethnic Groups Cus- toms tourism belt, Jin-Chu Culture Lake Mountain scene tourism belt and the Roof of the World Hunt Strange Exploration tourism belt belong to latent gentle decline type. 4） Volume of shift is different greatly among tourism provinces. For example, Zhejiang and Jiangsu are bigger positive shift, it means that these tourism provinces have stronger competitive capacity; but Guangdong and Peking are greater negative shift, that is to say, competitive capacity of these tourism provinces are on the decline.