基于组合预测法的公铁立交桥交通量预测研究

Combined Forecasting Methods Research of Highway-Railway Separation Bridge Traffic Volume Forecasting

交通量的调查与预测是公路管理中的一项基础性工作,为了能够科学预测交通量,在交通工程理论、系统论等理论的指导下,采取系统分析的方法,对近10年公铁立交桥的各种交通组成、交通量,当地人口、GDP数量进行实地调查,再把调查的交通量数据进行折算为标准交通量,以此为基础对立交桥的交通量科学分析,进行组合预测,把预测的结果通过多元回归验证,最终确定了该立交桥的交通量,为公路建设总体布局与规划、旧路技术改造以及交通措施管理等提供了重要依据。

Traffic volume survey and forecasting is a basic work of highway management, In order to be able to scientifically predict traffic volume, under the guidance of the traffic engineering theory and system theory and so on; by using systems analysis, the paper conducts field Surveys for recently a decade of various traffiC composition, traffic volume, the local population and GDP of highway-railway SeParation bridge. Traffic volume data is converted into the standard traffic Based on it, the traffic votume of overpass is scientifically analyzed＇ By using combined forecasting methods, predicted results are verlfied by multi-element regression, finally the paper determined the overpass traffic volume, which provides an important basis for Overall layout and planning of highway construction, technological transformation of the old road and traffic management measure.