国际贸易、污染产业转移和中国工业CO2排放

International Trade、Pollution Industry Transfer and Chinese Industries’ CO_2 Emissions

通过国际贸易,发达国家是否会专业化生产并出口"干净型"产品,并从中国进口污染密集型产品,从而使中国成为"污染产业天堂"呢?国际贸易等因素如何影响中国工业行业的二氧化碳(CO2)的排放呢?本文采用环境投入产出模型和净出口消费指数等方法,运用中国20个工业行业与G7和OECD等发达国家的贸易数据,实证检验了这些问题。本文得到几个结论:(1)在中国出口产品隐含的CO2中,国内生产的CO2所占比例逐步减少;(2)发达国家向中国转移的产业并不仅仅是污染产业,同时也向中国转移了"干净"产业;(3)国际贸易能够减少工业行业的CO2排放总量和单位产出的CO2排放量。因此,中国并没有通过国际贸易成为发达国家的"污染产业天堂"。

By trade, developed countries may specialize in ＂ clean＂ product and import pollution products from developing countries, then transfer the pollution industries to developing countries. If China has become Pollution Industry Haven by trade, what is the effect of trade on Chinese＇s CO2 Emissions？ The article explores it by using the Environmental Input-Output Technique and the trade data between twenty industries of China and G7 countries and OECD. We find that International Trade may decrease the industries＇ CO2 Emissions.