寡头垄断条件下的储蓄率与长期贸易模式

Saving Rate and Trade Pattern in Long-run Under Oligopolistic Market Structure

本文建立了一个两种要素、两种产品的动态模型来分析寡头垄断市场结构条件下储蓄率和长期贸易模式的关系。如果不同国家的寡头垄断厂商在均衡状态下具有相同的产出水平,那么无论初始时刻各国的要素禀赋状况如何,在长期均衡状态下储蓄率高的国家比储蓄率低的国家具有更高的资本-劳动之比,且储蓄率较高的国家出口资本密集型产品、进口劳动密集型产品,储蓄率较低的国家则相反。因而储蓄率在长期内决定着贸易模式。这意味着高储蓄率对于以产业结构和贸易商品结构从以劳动密集型为主向以资本密集型为主转变为标志的工业化进程也具有决定作用。因此,高储蓄率对于现阶段中国经济增长的作用不应该被低估。

This paper constructs a two-factor and two-product dynamic model to analyze the relationship between saving rate and trade pattern in long-run under oligopolistic market structure. We have showed that if oligopolys in different countries will have equal output in equilibrium, then the country with a higher saving rate will have a higher capital-labor ratio in long-run equilibrium, and export capital-intensive goods, import labor-intensive goods, and vice versa. Our conclusion implies that high saving rate is crucial for the industrialization process. So the positive effect of high saving rate on our economic growth should not be underestimated in current time.