T213降水预报产品在新疆区域的检验分析——晴雨检验

Verification and Analysis of Sunny/Rainy Forecasting Abilities of T213 Precipitation Forecast Product in Xinjiang

利用2006年新疆地面气象观测站的实况降水资料和T213模式的降水预报值,根据中短期天气预报质量检验办法中客观降水检验方法,对T213降水预报产品的24h晴雨预报能力进行了检验分析。结果表明:新疆地区T213降水的晴雨TS评分和空、漏报率均存在明显的时空分布差异;伊犁河谷、阿勒泰地区东部和西部沿天山地区TS值较高,而地形条件复杂的区域和降水少的沙漠腹地TS值较低;晴雨TS评分空间分布情况在少雨的春季与多雨的夏季大体一致,这与新疆三山夹两盆的特殊地形有关;晴雨TS评分存在明显的季节变化,与季节雨量多寡存在一定的对应关系。

Using rainfall data of observation stations in Xinjiang and precipitation forecast products of T213 global model, we verified and analyzed the sunny/rainy forecasting abilities of the precipitation product of T213 by the objective rainfall verification method, one of short-range and mid-range weather forecast verification methods. The results showed that obvious temporal and spatial characteristics exist in sunny/rainy threat score （TS）, as well as false alarm rate and dismissal alarm rate of the T213 precipitation forecast in Xinjiang region. The higher TS are in Yili River valley, the east of Aletai area and the west of Tianshan Mountain range. The lower TS are in the regions of complicated topographical condition and the desert hinterland where precipitation is little; the spatial dictribution of sunny/rainy TS in spring with less precipitation is roughly consistent with that in summer of rich precipitation, and it related to the special topography in Xinjiang. There is obvious seasonal variation in sunny/rainy TS, which is related to the seasonal precipitation amount.