基于动机理论的现金持有决策模型与数据模拟

Cash Holding Decision Model and Data Simulation Based on Motive Theory

Keynes的货币持有动机理论是建立现金决策模型的重要基础,在同时考虑企业三种现金持有动机的基础上建立现金决策模型。结合文献中企业现金持有水平的经验结果进行数据模拟分析,得出如下结论:一是企业应该关注交易性动机和预防性动机的现金需求,而非投机性动机的现金需求;二是企业经营资产收益率和投机回报率只有在出现极端值的情况下才会对企业现金持有决策产生影响;三是未来预期投资规模不会影响企业现金持有水平。对企业现金持有水平经验研究开拓思路,有利于详细考察企业现金持有水平变动的不同原因。

Keynes＇ money holding motive theory is the basis of constructing cash holding decision models. We have investigated optimal cash holding decision model by considering three motives. Then we conduct data simulation with some empirical litearature results in existing literature. The main conclusion of our research are as follows. Firstly, enterprises should concern on the cash demand of transaction motive and precautionary motive rather than that of speculative motive. Secondly, only when return of opration assets and return of speculative appear extreme values will the two indexes influence enterprises＇ cash holding decision. Thirdly, anticipated investment scale of future won＇t influence enterprises＇ cash holding level. In addition, our research opens up a new vision of empirical research on cash holding.