体制变迁下的兰州城市总体规划实施效果分析

EFFECTS OF MASTER PLAN IMPLEMENTATION DURING INSTITUTIONAL TRANSITION IN LANZHOU

城市总体规划两项最重要的功能——预测城市人口、用地规模;对城市各项建设用地在空间上作出具体安排,为了检测这两项功能在不同时期发挥作用的效果,笔者运用GIS分析方法,结合城市现状人口数据分析,结果发现:传统计划经济时期城市规划人口预测畸形地符合规划期末现状人口,而改革开放以来人口预测与现实偏差巨大;在用地布局方面,不管是计划经济时期,还是改革开放以来,不同类型的城市建设用地在组团城市中的各个组团实施效果也差别明显,但实施效果均不如预期。最后通过回顾新中国成立以来各种与城市发展相关的制度演变发现:影响城市总体规划实施的根本原因是规划期内各种剧烈的社会动荡和深刻的政治和经济体制的转变。

The two major functions of urban master plan are to forecast the population and land scale, and arrange the layout of land for construction. Based on existing urban population data, this paper examines the effects of the two functions of master plan at different periods by using GIS method. The results show that in the planned economy period the forecasted population is usually in accordance with the real population at the end of planned term, however the forecasted population is quite different from the population at the end of the planned term since reform and opening up. In the respect of land layout, in both planned economy and market economy the implementation of urban construction lands is not as good as expected. Finally by reviewing the change of institutions related to the urban development since the establishment of new China, it finds that the ultimate reason affecting the urban master plan is the various social turmoil and political and economic transition in the planned term.