中国生产性服务业与制造业间关系研究——基于1978—2007年中国数据的协整分析与格兰杰因果检验

A Study on the Interaction between Producer Service Industries and Manufacturing Industries:Co-integration Analysis and Granger Test Based on the China's Data from 1984 to 2007

服务经济时代的到来,生产性服务业对经济发展推动作用的凸现引起了越来越多人的关注。然而,从已有的研究来看,生产性服务业与制造业的关系问题并未得到确定的答案,在中国情境下对该问题进行实证研究的文献更显单薄。为此,本文从生产性服务业与制造业的关系角度出发,应用协整分析和格兰杰检验,发现我国的生产性服务业与制造业之间存在长期均衡关系,而且二者之间互为因果关系。同时,生产性服务业所包含的交通运输仓储和邮政业、房地产业与制造业之间也具有长期均衡关系并互为因果关系。

With the coming of service economy age, more and more people concern about the role of producer services to promote the development of economy. But what kind of relationship between producer services and manufacturing industries is still a controversial topic. This paper, based on the literature review, attempts to nmke a Co--integration analysis and Granger test on the relationship between China＇s producer services and manufacturing industrics by adopting the data from 1978 to 2007.We found that there are long--term co-integration and causality between China＇s producer services and manufactnring industries, and the results also shown that transportation, storing, post and real estate which belongs to producer services also exist long-term co-integration and causality with mallufacturing industries.