金融发展的倒U型增长效应与最优金融规模

The Inverted U-shaped Growth Effect of Financial Development and Optimal Financial Scale

金融发展能够促进经济增长,但是其作用是非线性的。由于金融发展是有成本的,当金融过度发展时,其机会成本将大于潜在的收益,反而会阻碍经济增长。因此,经济中存在最优的金融发展规模。本文用金融部门就业占总就业的比重作为度量金融发展的指标,为避免内生性偏误,实证研究采用系统的GMM进行估计。结果表明:金融发展对经济增长的影响不是线性的,而是一个倒U型。潜在的最优金融规模主要由经济发展水平和人力资本存量决定。

Financial development promotes economic growth in non-linear pattern. When finance system is over-developed,the opportunity cost is greater than the potential benefits,then it will be detrimental to economic growth. Therefore,there exists an optimal size of the financial development in the economy. This paper uses employment ratio in financial sector to total employment as a measure of financial development. In order to avoid endogeneity bias,we use system-GMM estimator. The results demonstrate the effect of financial development on economic growth is inverted U-shaped rather than non-linear. The potential optimal size of the financial development is mainly contingent on economic development and human capital stock.