广州市外贸出口竞争力发展趋势的实证研究

Empirical Study on Development Trend of Foreign Trade Competitiveness in Guangzhou

近年来广州市外贸出口总额的增长在很大程度上得益于出口数量的增加而不是收益率的增加,属于以量取胜型发展模式。本文的实证结论是:近几年广州市外贸竞争力逐步下降,有导致出口贸易硬着陆的风险,并有导致外贸出口周期性持续下降的可能。加大研发投入,促进高新技术及高附加值产品的出口能力,加快从"以量取胜"向"以质取胜"转变的步伐,是广州市外贸出口可持续发展的基本路径。

In recent years, the growth in total export of Guangzhou largely owes to the growth in quantity rather than the rate of yield, and the model of Guangzhou export largely depends on the quantity but not on the quality. Then the conclusion can be this： trade competitiveness of Guang- zhou is declining in recent years, which will increase the risk of ＂hard landing＂ and lead to the possibility of cyclical decline in export. It will be a long-term fundamental issue of Guangzhou export that the government should increase the input of research and development, promote the export capacity of high added value products, e.g. new and high technology, quicken the transition of trade competitiveness from win-by-quantity to win-by-quality, and persist in improving the capability of trade competitiveness.