新安江模型参数的局部灵敏度分析

Local sensitivity analysis on parameters of Xinanjiang Model

新安江模型是我国应用广泛的一种降雨径流流域模型,适用于湿润和半湿润地区。新安江模型参数较多,人工率定时需要首先率定对模拟结果影响最为敏感的参数,因此对参数进行灵敏度分析是必要的。采用水文模拟法和摩尔斯分类筛选法,对清江流域1989年9月30日至10月5日次洪水进行径流模拟,并让参数变化一定的步长,用Nash系数对模拟结果的精度进行评定,从而反映出参数的灵敏度。结果表明,最灵敏的参数是FC和Cg;Kc和WM是灵敏参数;b对峰值流量是高灵敏参数,而对径流总量来说是灵敏参数;WUM,WLM,WDM,C和IMP是不灵敏参数。

The widely - used Xin＇anjiang Model is a rainfall - runoff model and has been applied in humid and sub - humid regions in China. It is necessary to perform sensitivity analysis for its parameters due to its numerous parameters and manual calibration of the most sensitive parameters for the simulation result. We carried out the sensitivity analysis by two methods, hydrological simulation and Morris,on a flow of Qingjiang River. The results reveal that, FC and Cg are the most sensitive parameters, Kc and WM are sensitive parameters; b is a highly sensitive parameter relative to peak but a sensitive one to total runoff; WUM , WLM , WDM , C and IMP are non - sensitive parameters. The research on sensitivity of the model parameters is favorable for improving the efficiency of manual calibration of the Xin＇anjiang Model.